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Syracuse women’s basketball has underwhelmed this year, according to ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme. Preseason, the team was expected to be the third-best in the Atlantic Coast Conference, he said. He had them as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. 

But as of Wednesday morning, the Orange dropped to the No. 8 line, and they’re trending downward.

“To me, they should be the third-best team in the ACC, and it should be clear,” Creme told The Daily Orange of his preseason expectations for Syracuse. “And it obviously has not been a clear-cut scenario where you call them the third-best team.”

The Orange currently sit in fourth place, three conference wins behind Georgia Tech, and they have the same conference record as fifth-place Florida State (8-6). With the ACC tournament just one week away, this is what Creme expects to see from Syracuse in the NCAA tournament:

Syracuse is a lock

In Creme’s most recent NCAA tournament bracket, the Orange are on top of the No. 8-seed line, sitting at No. 29 overall. With conference games remaining against ACC bottom-feeder Boston College and second-place North Carolina State, Syracuse has all but locked up a spot in the tournament, Creme added. 

Head coach Quentin Hillsman echoed that sentiment in a Wednesday press conference, saying that “I don’t see why we wouldn’t be in.”

“They’re going to make the tournament,” Creme said. “I don’t see any scenario, with the way things are laying out now, that they don’t make it.”

It’ll be Syracuse’s eighth consecutive season with an NCAA tournament appearance — not counting 2020, where the NCAA tournament was canceled. The bigger questions lie not in the Orange’s tournament chances, but their seeding.

Syracuse’s current No. 8 seeding 

As it stands, Syracuse will most likely close out its season as a No. 7 or No. 8 seed, Creme said. Hillsman agreed, adding that SU could be a No. 9 seed, too. The 15-year Syracuse head coach said he entered the season wanting to avoid becoming a team seeded in the middle of the pack. The Orange, however, have become just that. 

At Syracuse’s peak, Creme had SU at a No. 6 seed, but they’ve since fallen after road losses to Virginia Tech, Florida State and Georgia Tech. Struggles on the road have hurt the Orange’s tournament stock, Creme said, and in a different year, with fans, road wins would be even more valuable. 

“There’s no home games in the event (this year),” Creme said. “(But) if you’re going to go far in the tournament … road wins are an important measuring stick. So I think that’s hurting their seed as well.”

Slow starts are the other major factor hurting SU’s stock, Creme said. The Orange have trailed by double digits at halftime in five of their six losses this season. 

“They always make a move,” Creme said of SU’s pattern of second-half comebacks. “They (just) got to make it sooner than they’ve been making it.” 

Against Virginia Tech, that move came too late, Creme emphasized. Too many of Syracuse’s contests have required hefty comebacks, and the Orange haven’t fully proved that they can play a complete four quarters against a tough opponent. There have been certain nights where Syracuse has played like a top ACC team, but the Orange haven’t been consistent enough to deserve a higher seeding yet, he said. 

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Syracuse’s ceiling

Before the season, Creme thought Syracuse’s ceiling was easily a Sweet-16 appearance. Now, after an underwhelming regular season, he’s “not confident in that anymore.” 

The best-case scenario now is that Syracuse beats NC State on Sunday, makes it to the final of the ACC tournament and leapfrogs to a higher seed, Creme said. 

From there, the Orange have the potential to win their first round game against a team such as Iowa State, Alabama, DePaul or Mississippi State. Their ceiling is a second-round exit against a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

As Creme’s current bracket has it, the Orange would face Iowa State in the first round and most likely No. 1 UConn in the second. Had Syracuse lived up to the expectations and played well enough to deserve a No. 5 or No. 6 seed, that would have created “a whole different animal of a matchup in round 2 than what they’re looking at now.”

“Are they good enough, from what we’ve seen, to beat a No. 1 or No. 2? I think my answer would be no, so I’m thinking realistically, the ceiling is probably a win, and then out,” Creme said.

Syracuse’s floor

Syracuse’s floor is a first-round loss. As a No. 7 or No. 8 seed, the Orange would face a No. 10 or No. 9-seeded team in the first round, respectively — matchups which “are largely considered tossups,” according to Creme. Syracuse will face a team who’s had a “largely equitable season.” 

“Losing in that game is certainly realistic,” Creme said.

The Orange have the most issues when they can’t get a third shooting option going beyond Tiana Mangakahia and Kamilla Cardoso. Kiara Lewis might be Syracuse’s X-factor, Creme said, because she’s been a big facilitator in a number of its comebacks. 

Hillsman has other options in freshman Priscilla Williams and four-year starter Digna Strautmane if Lewis’ shots aren’t falling. Against Virginia Tech, Lewis was quiet, and her absence was apparent.

“They don’t make enough 3s most games, (and) especially when they get behind, they’re going to struggle,” Creme said.

Coach Quentin Hillsman said Syracuse will definitely make the tournament, but will likely be between a No. 7 and No. 9 seed. Courtesy of the ACC

Postponements and preparation

Syracuse had a three-week pause due to COVID-19, but it’s since made up almost all of its missed games. That came in the form of two sequences with four games in eight days, so missed games are no longer going to hurt Syracuse’s tournament resume, according to Creme.

Syracuse has played about the same number of games as the teams around them, so the fact that everything is “fairly equitable” won’t ding the Orange during the evaluation process.

The ACC and Southeastern Conference have been particularly good about rescheduling missed games, but other conferences, such as the PAC-12, will be hit the hardest, Creme said. 

Mangakahia and her teammates have also repeatedly said that playing so many games in such short windows serves as good preparation for the ACC and NCAA tournaments. SU certainly experienced fatigue, but she argued it’d be beneficial down the stretch.

SU beats No. 2 NC State — then what?

The Wolfpack are the perfect example of the type of team that Syracuse could face if it wins its first-round NCAA tournament game. Teams from the same conference can’t meet before the regional final, so Syracuse-NC State in the second round wouldn’t be possible. The matchup does serve as a “measuring stick” for what’s to come,” though, Creme said.

If Syracuse can beat the Wolfpack on Sunday, or make it to the final round of the ACC tournament — which would likely require going through a team of NC State or Louisville’s caliber — Creme said the Orange have a good case for higher seeding. They could “leapfrog” up to a No. 7 seed, depending on how matchups play out throughout the nation.

Published on February 24, 2021 at 9:57 pm

Contact Roshan: rferna04@syr.edu | @Roshan_f16