The Middle East was recognized as a region of autocracy and repression for decades, until civilians throughout chose to revolt eight months ago. Revolution was not an instant solution.

‘It’s great when people take over these dictators, but at the same time the situation’s almost like a stab wound,’ said Adam Elrashidi, a graduate student whose parents were born and raised in Egypt. ‘If you pull the knife out, it will bleed more, but if you keep it in, the knife will sink deeper. It’s a no-win situation.’

Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was one of the first dictators ousted as a result of the Arab Spring, a series of Middle Eastern revolutions. Mubarak left a disjointed country, and Egypt and the other countries of the Middle East remain disheveled — with unclear roads ahead.

The Middle East witnessed former Libyan leader Moammar al Gadhafi’s death three weeks ago. His death marks a success for rebels who tolerated his regime for 44 years, but Libya is a long way from utopia.

‘History has shown us time and again that success in toppling a country’s dictator does not necessarily mean that the country would soon enjoy stability,’ said Arabic professor Violette Humsi. ‘Nine years after Saddam Hussein was toppled in Iraq, what was once a sovereign dictatorship is now an unstable country rampant with corruption.’

Libya’s situation is complicated by the ethnically diverse people and the split between the East and West. Along with an abundance of weapons, and fighting among rebel leaders, Libya has an ominous future, Humsi said.

The Transitional National Council is recognized as an alternative to Gadhafi. Its members have no clear plans to proceed, said Amy Kallander, a history professor who teaches SU’s Arab Revolutions course.

It is necessary for rebel leadership to straighten their agenda, Humsi said. She found it disappointing that Libya’s interim leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil announced in his first press conference that the government prioritized polygamy and Islamic Sharia law, issues not of immediate importance.

‘The Libyan people fought to rid themselves of an oppressive dictatorship that kept their country and its people 40 years behind the rest of the world,’ she said. ‘If such are the priorities of their new leaders, their lives may have changed from Gadhafi to Abdel-Jalil, but it doesn’t mean they’re going to be that much better.’

Egypt saw its leader leave eight months earlier than Libya and appeared to be headed toward years of instability.

‘There’s a lot of resentment from the same organizers who were out in Tahrir Square organizing the revolution to overthrow Mubarak, who are upset with the military command that’s in charge,’ said Osamah Khalil, a history professor.

The military arm of Mubarak’s regime remains despite Mubarak’s departure and will be conducting parliamentary elections. With the continued presence, people are fearful of how the transition will unfold, said Robert Rubinstein, a professor of anthropology and international relations.

Stability in Egypt is a matter of whether the government will reinstate the education, employment and social policies, or whether they will open more opportunities, Rubinstein said. Only time will tell and Elrashidi agrees.

‘At first, I was surprised. You’ve got Mubarak in power for 30 years, and you think he’ll be in power forever, and then suddenly this man with absolute power is a frail old man. It’s poetic injustice,’ Elrashidi said. ‘But you can’t wave your wand and have everything easy and clean, there’s going to be chaos.’

Tunisia is a smaller, more homogenous country that is able to vote for one of two principal parties without one party winning an overwhelming majority. Such a situation works well for a democratic process, Humsi said.

The world witnessed Tunisia’s first-ever democratic elections a few weeks ago. A moderate Islamic party won 90 of the 217 seats in the assembly that will write a new constitution, Khalil said. It is currently the only country of the Arab Spring to successfully establish a new government.

Syrians are trying to overthrow the government of President Bashar al-Assad, who rules a regime accountable for the deaths of thousands. They are attempting to implement Egyptian and Libyan models, by protesting in Damascus as the Egyptians did in Tahrir Square, and creating an alternative government mimicking the Libyan uprising, Khalil said.

The United States and the rest of the free world are having difficulty removing al-Assad. He is reported to have said he would not hesitate to attack Israel if there were any military threats against his regime.

The situation in Yemen is worrisome, as the region is home to one of the largest al-Qaeda bases. The United States is heavily interested in restoring the country’s stability, Humsi said.

‘That’s one of the risks you take when you focus on stability — it’s picking between the ‘devil you know’ and the ‘devil you don’t,” Khalil said.

For Bahrain, revolution seems to be a question of time, Khalil said. The country is ruled by the Sunni minority al-Khalifa, though the majority of people are Shiites. Many Bahraini Shiites have been influenced by Shiites in Iran, an enemy of both Saudi Arabia and the United States. Iran’s involvement with the region and the toppling of the Bahraini regime would be a source for concern.

The revolutions have been inspiring for countries on the sidelines. Morocco implemented new policies and a revision of the constitution to maintain stability, said Rabea Aniq-Filali, a Moroccan member of the Civic Education and Leadership Fellows program through the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs.

‘The uprisings that are happening in the Arab countries are the best thing in years,’ she said. ‘But people must know that this is just a beginning, that we need everybody to join together to build real democratic societies with a well-thought out framework.’

meltagou@syr.edu 

Published on November 14, 2011 at 12:00 pm

Contact Marwa: meltagou@syr.edu | @marwaeltagouri